Telcos to lose $40bn from coronavirus, says Analysys Mason

Slump predicted this year before a rebound in 2021

Revenue for telecoms operators will slump more than $40 billion (3.4 per cent ) this year before returning to growth of just .08 per cent next year.

So says a report by Analysys Mason, a global specialist adviser in telecoms, media and technology.

Although telecoms is a relatively resilient sector and will beat general economic trends . Analysys Mason expects telecoms to account for 2.0 per cent of GDP in 2020, an increase from 1.9 per cent per cent per cent in 2019.

“Consumer telecoms revenue, which accounts for 68 per cent of telecoms revenue, tends to be relatively resilient during economic downturns,but large increases in unemployment, business closures and the overall decrease in economic activity will cause a sharp decline in business services revenue.” said Stephen Sale, research Director and co-author of the report”.

Operators should be able to limit the impact on profitability.

“Operator capex is likely to fall in 2020 because of constraints in the ability to build and because of disruption to supply chains. The pandemic will reinforce and accelerate existing downward opex trends rather than introduce new ones. Profits will fall, but we do not expect overall EBITDA margins for the sector to decline by more than two percentage points.

“Telecoms should stay healthier than almost any industry in this crisis. Telecoms should show some of the strongest post-crisis investment, in part because cashflow is more resilient in the telecoms sector than it is most others, and because some governments will emphasise 5G and fibre in stimulus packages”, added ” said Rupert Wood, Research Director and co-author of this report.